Ohio State, Curb Your Enthusiasm.
While most of Central Ohio and the great beyond fixate upon the Nov. 18 Ohio State – Michigan game (justifiably so) these chilly Autumn nights remind me that our mistress, Big Ten basketball awaits less than one month away. Seems like just yesterday that Thad Matta got pounded by John Thompson III in the NCCA Tourney. According to many prognosticators and the related cognoscenti, things will be different this year for Ohio State, a consensus top-15 team. While they may still be unable to beat Georgetown, many people, even those outside Columbus, think Ohio State will not only make the NCAAs but also make a run at the Final Four. I hope so but I’m not so confident. Perhaps lingering pain from my days of growing up during the Eldon Miller regime or as a Brown’s fan, I’m much more comfortable with lowered expectations. I think it’s prudent for Buckeye fans to curb our enthusiasm. Unfortunately, I’m in the clear minority of Ohio State fans who believe they’ll win, win now and win big.

With a nucleus of players from the Jim O'Brien era, Ohio State had a great 2005-2006 regular season. Although they stumbled down the stretch and looked horrible in the NCAA Tourney, the Buckeyes generally exceeded expectations with an experienced team and winning the Big Ten Championship. Two very good players return from last year’s team in Jamar Butler (a potential first-team all-Big player) and Ron Lewis, a proven scorer. Among others, however, it loses a solid guard in J’kel Foster, a hard worker on both ends in J.J. Sullinger and the Big Ten Player of the Year in Terence Dials (addition by subtraction with Matt Sylvester). Ohio State replaces these experienced players with young but extremely talented freshmen.

Oh yes, the Thad Five. For just about everyone, most of whom have never seen him play, the hyperbole surrounding Ohio State’s season begins and ends with Greg Oden. However, surmising Ohio State will be better off without Dials and with Oden diminishes the contributions of Dials, a fifth year senior and Conference Player of the Year. Granted Oden is huge and talented, but based on the scouting report of Mankitten ,who saw Oden and Illinois recruit Brian Carlwell in the same Chicago tournament, Carlwell is no sloutch and in fact may be turn in the better Big Ten career because he'll stick around Champaign beyond his Freshman season. Although not as hyped, Daequan Cook is great shooter and will most likely probably step into Foster's role. David Lighty, Othella Hunter and Mike Conley will be counted on to provide significant minutes. No question, on paper it’s a talented recruiting class with potential. Putting potential on the scoreboard is another matter. Just ask Tommy Amaker and all the talent he has squandered from Seton Hall to Ann Arbor, Michigan.

The biggest issue with Oden is Matta’s failure to put depth behind the big freshman. Unfortunately, Matt Terwilliger is not the answer. Even when Oden returns from rehabing his injured wrist, Ohio State will have very little wiggle room on the front line.

As Dials will probably disclose over a beer, Matta had a proven track record of being completely unable to get him the ball when Ohio State needed a bucket. Unless Matta changes his coaching philosophy from a perimeter-oriented team to a post-team, which is very unlikely given the makeup of his recruiting classes and his track record at Butler and Xavier, Oden, like Dials, may find himself watching the guards take jump shots for several months before he flirts with the NBA.

Finally many teams in the Big Ten will confront similar problems in terms of experience, or lack thereof, as Ohio State. The Seth Davises of the world think it's a down year in the Big Ten; I think it's a wide open league that will be heavily dependent on the abilities of its coaches. Other than Ohio State, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan State and Iowa all lost significant players. With young teams, coaching plays a huge role in determining wins and loses. On this point, I fear Tom Izzo, Bruce Weber (but not Steve Alford) have an edge on the Buckeyes. In the conference, Ohio State could easily lose to Purdue, Penn State, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. They’ll obviously have a tough time with North Carolina and Florida, not to mentioned well-coached and experienced teams in VMI, Cincinnati and Iowa State.

So far in his career, Matta has won with players he inherited from other coaches. Certainly a mark of a good coach is winning with the hand you're dealt. This year, however, we will see Matta's vision for Ohio State and he will be judged on its results. At the end of the day, however, Ohio State is a bubble team getting pounded early in the season and struggling to get the wins in February they will desperately need to make the NCAA Tournament. Although the new uniforms are absolutely ridiculous, the season will be interesting and hopefully fun.